Quote:
Originally Posted by Scornfire
That accounts for both teams, half a run here, half a run there. The Favor is where the issues lie. Kyle McCrady (the best for this stat) for instance has an average favor of only 0.12. The game with Ron Kulpa saw Tampa Favored by almost 2 entire runs. In a game we lost by 2 runs
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I think favour is just the guy getting lucky about things evening out. I don't think there is some conspiracy where umps are trying to call the game different for one team vs the other. Sometimes your bad calls even out and sometimes they don't.
That being said, I suspect the guys that make more bad calls are more likely to have it happen in a high leverage situation, thus swinging the favour to a greater number, but it still matters if they are just lucky in things evening out.
This sort of plays out where guys with higher favours also have higher total run impacts - it's just more likely that more bad calls with happen at key moments.
There is no data for other years so this is just a guess, but I suspect that total run impact is somewhat consistent year over year, whereas the favour bounces around year to year based on luck (though the two are probably still somewhat correlated).