Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
I don't know about you but these averages really add up. The Avs scored 42 more goals than the Flames over a 56 game season(0.84 more goals per game). That adds up to 61.5 more goals over an 82 game season. As for Vegas it's 35 goals(extra 0.625 goals per game). That's quite the gap.
Unless you meant that if we manage to be as elite as these teams defensively, then yeah of course it would make the Flames a much better team. Based on last season the Flames would've needed to reduce their goals against by 28(col)-38(vgk) goals. The Flames would have went from a -5 goal differential to a +28(I averaged the two).
Yeah they would've been more than okay, but that's a huge if! That's 41-56 goals, and you want to add the 5+ more goals. I believe in Sutter as much as the next guy, but cutting goals against by 50-60 goals over one off season, that's some magic right there. Especially if you consider the defense got worse as a whole.
|
I actually think it is possible for the Flames to cut their GA considerably this season, for the following reasons:
1) IIRC, the Flames basically already cut down their GA in the last 15 or 20 games of the season. Small sample size, so who knows if it sticks (also fair to think that it may not hold when playing against every other team in the NHL this season). However, there was no training camp for Sutter to really get his changes down - his changes were tweaks and orders about playing with more pace. I do think his system will help to keep the GA lower, but we will have to see.
2) Forwards - forwards like Lewis and Richardson weren't brought in to be face-punchers (not that I think you are implying this at all - just for the people who may be reading this that assume they are just 4th line plugs good at playing 'smashmouth hockey'). The additions have strong underlying metrics, especially defensively. Coleman is a strong 2 way forward. Pitlick to me should boost Backlund's line back up (though Backlund's line has been consistently good IMO) to the level of Backlund-Frolik (when Frolik was super strong defensively), but with a boost of grit over what Frolik brought. I really do think that the forwards overall will help reduce the GA this season.
3) Defence - This worries me offensively, but defensively? I think they will be fine. Hanifin should continue to shine defensively, Tanev is basically as 'good as it gets' defensively. Zadorov has good underlying metrics in shot suppression. WIll Andersson bounce-back a bit - I thought he was putrid for most of last season, but being coached by Sutter should help him recover somewhat I think. Valimaki is young and improving, and I wouldn't bet against him for taking a step forward this season. Gudbranson for all his warts, can be a reliable bottom-pairing defencemen (key word there - bottom-pairing). Fans in Pittsburgh, Nashville and Anaheim seemed to generally agree that he was a mistake-free bottom-pairing defencemen for them - so it gives me room for optimism. Plus Stone was better than Nesterov defensively, and if Gudbranson is not up to snuff, he can step in.
4) Ability to play at pace. Conditioning was seen as an underlying reason as to why the Flames weren't able to play with the speed and effort in all 3 periods over the last few years. Darryl has made a point to call this out, and to get every player training properly this off-season. Hard to get back on defence when you are pooped.
I am really not worried about this team not making it into the 'top 10 best defensive teams' ranking - in fact, I think they will be in the top 4 or 5, but I accept that I may be drinking the kool-aid. I just think that a bunch of rational reasons stacked-up leads me to believe that this team will be one of the stingiest in the NHL. The offence worries me (especially from the D, and the transition overall), but defence is one area that this team should now excel at.