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tkflames · 09-20-2021, 11:34 AM

Interesting analysis, but some fatal and some esthetic flaws:

1. Esthetic: the author doesn't seem to know how to add negative numbers (looked at Anaheim and stopped checking)

2. Fatal: GAR is based on where a player slots. The example with Pitlick is a good one. Pitlick had a GAR of 7 playing 3rd line and a negative GAR on the second line. Ryan has a GAR of 7 playing against 4th liners...on the Oilers he likely slots 3rd line duty. Given the massive swings in GAR based on slotting...the analysis does not properly account for previous versus current slotting which changes the math completely.

In terms of the flames...there are many other metrics beyond GAR that tell you about the flames off season. They lost their #1 defender and got a top 6 winger. The remaining changes are identity related versus skill improvement. If you believe that the Flames are a Stanley cup threat by just playing tighter hockey and better defense - then this off season gives you optimism (especially considering how Montreal did). If you believe the fundamental structure is flawed and you might as well burn it down (or go all in to accelerate that process if necessary), like I do....then this was a horrible off season.

09-20-2021, 11:34 AM	#94
tkflames First Line Centre Join Date: Feb 2006 Exp:	Interesting analysis, but some fatal and some esthetic flaws: 1. Esthetic: the author doesn't seem to know how to add negative numbers (looked at Anaheim and stopped checking) 2. Fatal: GAR is based on where a player slots. The example with Pitlick is a good one. Pitlick had a GAR of 7 playing 3rd line and a negative GAR on the second line. Ryan has a GAR of 7 playing against 4th liners...on the Oilers he likely slots 3rd line duty. Given the massive swings in GAR based on slotting...the analysis does not properly account for previous versus current slotting which changes the math completely. In terms of the flames...there are many other metrics beyond GAR that tell you about the flames off season. They lost their #1 defender and got a top 6 winger. The remaining changes are identity related versus skill improvement. If you believe that the Flames are a Stanley cup threat by just playing tighter hockey and better defense - then this off season gives you optimism (especially considering how Montreal did). If you believe the fundamental structure is flawed and you might as well burn it down (or go all in to accelerate that process if necessary), like I do....then this was a horrible off season. __________________ Go Flames Go