Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
Nice little feature on 538 about the Jays:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-playoffs/
It uses run differential and pythagorean record to say the Jays are one of the most talented team in years that are at risk of missing the playoffs. I think that oversimplifies things a bit, but it has gotten me thinking. Are the Jays:
1) Just a little unlucky in sequencing, where they tend to cluster hits together in blowout wins and can't get balls to drop in close games
2) Not as good as we think as they run up scores in blow out games by feasting on easier pitching, but can't get it done against better pitchers when the game is close
I go back and forth on which one I think is true. I'm a big believer that luck plays a way larger roll in sports than anyone gives it credit, so I usually think that it's just bad luck. Thoughts? |
Definitely number 2) as it's clutch hitting and pitching that the Jays have been lacking. Compare them against Seattle who has a -53 run differential yet they are right beside the Jays in the standings. It's clear that when close games are on the line they have not been as consistent throughout the entire season as the rest who are comfortably in the playoffs.
On a side note I will suggest 3) Unlucky season of them not playing the entire season at Rogers Centre. The Jays have a home record of 22-22 while they were in Florida/Buffalo and are 17-8 at Rogers Centre so far this year. If they had gone 28-16 instead of 22-22 they would be where the numbers suggest.