Nice little feature on 538 about the Jays:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-playoffs/
It uses run differential and pythagorean record to say the Jays are one of the most talented team in years that are at risk of missing the playoffs. I think that oversimplifies things a bit, but it has gotten me thinking. Are the Jays:
1) Just a little unlucky in sequencing, where they tend to cluster hits together in blowout wins and can't get balls to drop in close games
2) Not as good as we think as they run up scores in blow out games by feasting on easier pitching, but can't get it done against better pitchers when the game is close
I go back and forth on which one I think is true. I'm a big believer that luck plays a way larger roll in sports than anyone gives it credit, so I usually think that it's just bad luck. Thoughts?