Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain
I'm just looking at Sutter's time with the Kings here. I don't think you can say a two time Cup winner has limited talent.
Also, star/talented players don't necessarily finish at a higher rate than other middle six players, they just create more chances. I mean some do, but some don't. I believe the stats guys found that on the whole, most players convert 5 on 5 chances at relatively the same rate.
Look at Crosby for example. His 5 on 5 shooting % was 149th in the league last year and Ovechkin has always been low in terms of shooting percentage.
I think what is probably happening here is that XGF% overvalues something that Sutter teams are good at, and undervalues something they are less good at.
Maybe Sutter teams create more goal mouth scrambles but attempt and convert on fewer passes across the royal road. Hard to say really, but if you have six years of data that shows a team's actual GF% never exceeding their XGF% its very unlikely to be luck at that point.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you that having a high XGF% is very good, but its odd that Sutter teams always have a higher XGF% than actual GF%. If I was the creator of the stat, I'd be looking at what is driving that phenomenon.
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For sure.
His teams could simply have a high frequency of a type of scoring chance that is deemed a high danger chance in today's definition, but really isn't all that dangerous.
Disagree on finishing though.
If you look at on ice shooting percentage and not shooting percentage I think you get a better feel for a top player's impact. Ovechkin shoots a lot for example so his shooting percentage can be low, but his on ice shooting percentage high because of the rebounds he creates.
Top on ice shooting percentage forwards from the last three years ...
Kuznetsov
Vrana
Pettersson
Panarin
Draisaitl
Boeser
McDavid
Kucherov
Ovechkin
Marner
Point
Kane
That's a pretty good group.