Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
You can't skew a stat like that.
It can be redefined or refined, but as it stands you just get more and better shots from dangerous areas. Always a good thing in hockey.
Sutter's coached some teams with limited talent though, so if you don't have the horses to finish when you get more chances than the opposition you can still get limited results.
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I'm just looking at Sutter's time with the Kings here. I don't think you can say a two time Cup winner has limited talent.
Also, star/talented players don't necessarily finish at a higher rate than other middle six players, they just create more chances. I mean some do, but some don't. I believe the stats guys found that on the whole, most players convert 5 on 5 chances at relatively the same rate.
Look at Crosby for example. His 5 on 5 shooting % was 149th in the league last year and Ovechkin has always been low in terms of shooting percentage.
I think what is probably happening here is that XGF% overvalues something that Sutter teams are good at, and undervalues something they are less good at.
Maybe Sutter teams create more goal mouth scrambles but attempt and convert on fewer passes across the royal road. Hard to say really, but if you have six years of data that shows a team's actual GF% never exceeding their XGF% its very unlikely to be luck at that point.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you that having a high XGF% is very good, but its odd that Sutter teams always have a higher XGF% than actual GF%. If I was the creator of the stat, I'd be looking at what is driving that phenomenon.