I think it’s an age curve play… his production for an 18-20 year old relative to ice time hasn’t been bad at all. I think his possession metrics haven’t been far off for a 18-20 year old still adding size and developing his skating (which needs work)…. He probably would have benefited from more time in Finland or AHL, and may have been stunted developmentally for a bit with the aggressive advancement… they didn’t seem to have a clear plan for him.
Having a chance to sign a player like that, ready to jump into his prime years at a long term deal with AAV presumably around $4-5m is a unique opportunity for a price of a likely late 1st and 3rd rounder. That first rounder is going to take 3-6 years to develop into an effective NHLer, and they get to try and skip that development time investing in a 21 year old guy on the cusp of breaking out now. They obviously felt the way the offseason went they could overpay him for 1 year to get the mechanics of an offer sheet done while temporarily fitting him into their cap structure.
What Dundon is doing is interesting and playing age curves, sample sizes, and noise in goalie performance. He elected to avoid the long term Hamilton decline phase contract…
I think building a core through talented forwards at peak ages is a sound idea… he’s going all in on it in a way I’ve never seen before (while electing to shop in the bargain aisle at D and G)…. It’s going to be interesting to see how it pans out… at face value the concept is logical.
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