[Itse]

Originally Posted by 81MC

Showing my ignorance, but how likely is it that,
A) ISIS and the Taliban work together, under a veil of ‘moderation’?

In some situations some Taleban could choose to work together with some ISIS, especially since neither organization is a strict top-down operation, and local commanders have a lot of say over their own troops.

Overall however they have conflicting ideals and goals.

ISIS can be called a doomsday cult. They're fighting to help bring about the Apocalypse where prophet Jesus will help the muslims defeat the army of Rome lead by the antichrist, or something to that tune. They're fighting a global war to purify the world of all infidels, and they consider shia muslims infidels.

To ISIS, Afghanistan is just one place to have that fight in.

Taleban in 2021 in comparison are a nationalistic ultra-conservative movement who's goal is to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan specifically and free Afghanistan from foreign control. (Including getting rid of foreign things like Christians and women's rights and some ethnic groups.) While they used to be a strictly sunni movement 20 years ago, these days they are at least making the effort to look like a coalition with room for both shia and sunni.

To Taleban, ISIS (or ISIS-K which is the local branch) is a foreign, armed militia with incompatible ideologies and no respect for the authority of the Taleban government. They are very much one of the many enemies the Taleban leaderships has.

B) ISIS takes control over the territory the Taliban has already taken back, and the entire nation is more of a horror show than it with the Taliban in power?

Taleban currently outnumber ISIS in Afghanistan something like 15:1, so military ISIS is not taking over. (Taleban is also likely better armed, has better troops and is more motivated to fight the ISIS than the other way around.)

Things could change though.

C) The Taliban battle each other for control for the foreseeable future?

In short, very possible.

Afghanistan has been at war with itself for 40 years now. While all wars end eventually, it doesn't look like peace is around the corner.

Taleban 2021 is a coalition of pretty different interests. Some of the groups are much more hardline and not really that different from ISIS, while some (including the current leadership) are relatively moderate and forward looking. The Taleban was on the brink of civil war with itself just a few years ago, and there's a very good chance that at least some bloodshed will happen within Taleban as the moderates and radical conservatives fight for power.

This could also, theoretically, lead to a split where some of the conservatives switch sides and join with ISIS.

In any case, shifting alliances is extremely common in civil wars, and Afghanistan is no exception to this. Now that this current Taleban coalition won this particular fight, the situation has changed and many commanders will be looking around considering what's the best coalition for them going forward.

Even without possible Taleban infighting, the civil war in Afghanistan is far from over. Taleban have already lost control of some of the territory they conquered while taking Kabul to forces that I guess could most easily be described as "representing the former government", and there's been some independent uprisings against Taleban.

Since Afghanistan is a country where in many areas almost every home has an assault rifle and a man who knows how to use it, it doesn't take much to form a new group to protect local interests.

Afghanistan is just a really difficult country to unite through war, in large part just because of it's geography. Take Panshjir valley for example, where the main opposition to Taleban is currently based at. The valley has two entrances, and this is the "easy" one:

http://www.traveladventures.org/coun...r-valley13.jpg

Soviet Union tried to conquer Panshjir valley nine times before giving up, so I don't see the Taleban taking it by force either.

I feel like a dummy saying this, but it seems like the Taliban would be preferable to ISIS? I believe they’re not allied, but against a common enemy?

Taleban is absolutely overall less bad than ISIS. Taleban are oppressive and murderous, but at least they have coherent, achievable goals.

It's also a bit of a stretch to even say they have a common enemy, especially now that the US occupation is over.

Taleban is, among other things, against foreign control of their country. ISIS is a movement lead from abroad, so to Taleban right now, ISIS is the enemy (Depending a bit on who you ask though I guess.)