Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
Would be shocking if a #1 overall bolts as a post-NCAA UFA. Would hopefully finally lead the NHL to finally close that loophole. This is only going to be a bigger problem as hockey progresses in the USA and more players opt to take part in college athletics.
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I just cannot see it happening. Doing so would require forfeiting millions of dollars in career earnings. He is not just losing out on the value of his ELC in the years he chooses to stay in college. It is all that, plus the massive amounts of money he is leaving on the table for the two, three or four years he is delaying signing his ELC. Think about it like this:
· Owen Powers declines to sign with Buffalo. Buffalo waits-out three years before trading him to another team
· Powers signs his three-year ELC in 2024. Between 2024–27 he accumulates career earnings of $11.0 m with bonuses.
But, if Powers signs next year in Buffalo:
· Owen Powers signs his three-year ELC in 2022. Between 2022–25 he earns $11.0 m with bonuses.
· In 2025 Powers signs a long-term extension worth $7.0 m per season. By 2027 his career earnings are $35.0 m.
That's +$14.0 m of earnings simply by starting his career in Buffalo earlier than if he holds out to play elsewhere. If he holds out and refuses a contract from Buffalo, he could potentially forego well over $10 m in earnings as a result.