Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Those might not be the best comparisons. On July 1st there were still people in hospital and the ICU from the prior wave, which is why the hospital numbers had dropped to about 80 by late July (with ~20 of those in the ICU). So the rate of new admissions is useful to put that in context. And 7-day averages are better for cases than single-day totals.
The simplest would be to look at a similar case level in a prior wave and see what hospitalizations were then. So right now it's:
7-day average: 418
Hospitalized: 152
ICU: 37
7-day average of new admissions: 15.3/day
The closest comparable from the fall wave would be Oct 25th:
7-day average: 416
Hospitalized: 120
ICU: 19
7-day average of new admissions: 8.7/day
Or another way to look at it is the ratio of the 7-day average of new cases to the 7-day average of new admissions (these are per million residents):
Sept 1: 32 cases vs 1.2 new admissions (26.7x)
Oct 1: 34 vs 1.5 (22.7x)
Nov 1: 115 vs 3.4 (33.8x)
Dec 1: 322 vs 12 (26.8x)
And in the 3rd wave:
April 1: 159 vs 5 (31.8x)
May 1: 414 vs 14.1 (29.4x)
Then at the low point of hospitalizations until now:
Jul 22: 13.8 vs 0.4 (34.5x)
Jul 31: 39.6 vs 1.2 (33x)
Aug 7: 60.6 vs 3 (30.3x)
Today: 94.8 vs 3.5 (27x)
So still pretty similar to prior situations where cases were rising (obviously you'd have fewer cases per admission when cases are declining).
|
Great breakdown of the numbers and thank you for all the work that went into it. Maybe someone with talent could list the occupancy rate of the beds being used so we can see how stressed the healthcare system actually is.
This is an interesting read also:
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...#comorbidities