Quote:
Originally Posted by calgarygeologist
People are staying out of the hospital right now. This may not be useful but I looked at three periods to see what the increase in hospitalization and ICU admission looked like during the start of wave 2, wave 3 and now.
September 29 to Nov 13 daily cases increased 5.8x from 173 to 1016. Hospitalization increased 3.5x from 58 to 206 and ICU increased 4.6x from 12 to 55.
March 4 to April 20 daily cases increased 4.3x from 402 to 1718. Hospitalization increased 1.9x from 211 to 396 and ICU increased 2.8x from 41 to 114.
July 1 to today cases increased 15.9x from 36 to 571. Hospitalization essentially stayed flat at 110 to 115 and ICU increased 12% from 33 to 37.
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Those might not be the best comparisons. On July 1st there were still people in hospital and the ICU from the prior wave, which is why the hospital numbers had dropped to about 80 by late July (with ~20 of those in the ICU). So the rate of new admissions is useful to put that in context. And 7-day averages are better for cases than single-day totals.
The simplest would be to look at a similar case level in a prior wave and see what hospitalizations were then. So right now it's:
7-day average:
418
Hospitalized:
152
ICU:
37
7-day average of new admissions:
15.3/day
The closest comparable from the fall wave would be Oct 25th:
7-day average:
416
Hospitalized:
120
ICU:
19
7-day average of new admissions:
8.7/day
Or another way to look at it is the ratio of the 7-day average of new cases to the 7-day average of new admissions (these are per million residents):
Sept 1: 32 cases vs 1.2 new admissions (26.7x)
Oct 1: 34 vs 1.5 (22.7x)
Nov 1: 115 vs 3.4 (33.8x)
Dec 1: 322 vs 12 (26.8x)
And in the 3rd wave:
April 1: 159 vs 5 (31.8x)
May 1: 414 vs 14.1 (29.4x)
Then at the low point of hospitalizations until now:
Jul 22: 13.8 vs 0.4 (34.5x)
Jul 31: 39.6 vs 1.2 (33x)
Aug 7: 60.6 vs 3 (30.3x)
Today: 94.8 vs 3.5 (27x)
So still pretty similar to prior situations where cases were rising (obviously you'd have fewer cases per admission when cases are declining).