Quote:
Originally Posted by calgarygeologist
95% effective against infection? That seems awfully optimistic. I just recently returned from a two week vacation where I was blissfully ignorant of any news especially Covid related but from what I've seen over the last few days breakthrough cases are significantly higher than 5%. Isn't Ontario about 20% breakthrough cases and it seems like the Mayo Clinic is seeing that effectiveness against Delta might be as low as 40% ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....06.21261707v1) |
20% is meaningless unless you know what percentage of the population is vaccinated. From Ontario's numbers today, the cases per 100K was 8.22 in unvaccinated people and 0.99 in fully vaccinated people. That's a reduction of 88%. And the ICU breakdown is 44 unvaccinated vs 2 fully vaccinated; considering about 90% of the senior population and 75% of adults are fully vaccinated, that's a risk reduction of about 98-99%.
As for the Mayo Clinic study, the numbers jump around a ton and there's likely a lot of noise in the data, so I'd be taking Pfizer's July numbers with a grain of salt. Here's the month-by-month breakdown:
March: Moderna = 91%; Pfizer = 89%
April: Moderna = 91%; Pfizer = 88%
May: Moderna = 93%; Pfizer = 83%
June: Moderna = 62%; Pfizer = 82%
July: Moderna = 76%; Pfizer = 42%
So Moderna dropped from 93% to 62% in one month, and then back up to 76% the next month. Obviously it didn't actually do that, it was just noise in the data. Observational studies can always have issues with that because they're much harder to properly randomize compared to clinical trials.