Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
The problem with just looking at GA/60 though is that you can't isolate what happens on the ice because the goaltender is a big variable.
xGA60 lets you see what should have happened under the average or normal outcome based on what was given up when player x was on the ice.
If a goalie stands on his head when say Nurse is on the ice he may have a respectable GA60 but playing terribly and getting bailed out by his goaltender.
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Sure, but IIRC most advanced hockey stats have an r-squared of around 0.3 which is considered a weak correlation statistically, so clearly the models miss a lot of context too. All I’m saying is that these analyses would be more complete if you include the actual results.