Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain
Here's the beef I have with XGA/60...
Lets take the last three years of Chris Tanev. I filtered out D-men who played less than 700 ES minutes btw.
Tanev's ranking in xGA/60:
20/21- 1st out of 129 D-men.
19/20- 137th out of 164
18/19- 72nd out 176
In the span of three seasons Tanev went from middle of the pack, to one of the worst, to the best in the league.
How do you take useful information about a player's ability out of something like that?
I mean clearly Tanev didn't play at a seventh defender ability in 19/20, and then become the best shutdown defenceman in the league in 20/21, so what is XGA/60 actually measuring?
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Tanev played 19/20 with Quinn Hughes who has the defensive acumen of Tyson Barrie. It is reasonable to assume he was left to do a lot of heavy defensive lifting, which enabled Hughes to thrive.
That being said, the point of analytical information like this is description and somewhat predictive. Like any accurate Bayesian model it will tell you the most at the tails, who is really bad and who is really good. Year after year, we are what we consistently do.
In other words the numbers are an oversimplification to assess a particular part of a players game in context and expose cognitive biases a person may have on a certain part of a certain players game.
Even at 72nd out of 176 defenceman in 18/19 Tanev was statistically a top 4 dman on most teams defensively.
Nurse has not touched being a top 100 dman defensively and he’s being paid like his has, or will. Meanwhile the water carrying Edmonton media is using physicality, face punching and salary inflation as a justification.
If the model is egregiously wrong and he is this hidden stud within the Oiler brass why didn’t they lock him up years ago at a better price point?
Are they stupid or incompetent, or both?
In 3 years you can just add all this nonsense to the long list of absurdity that has made them a laughing stock.