Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
But you just keep saying "I'm not convinced", in different words:
Why not? You just keep saying "you simply can't, it's impossible". Well, these models generally try to do so, and use a lot of data to increase their accuracy. I think everyone acknowledges that it's impossible to be perfect because of factors like the ones I mentioned with Tanev, but they end up being fairly accurate. So if you're going to just say "no, not good enough, you can't do it", the burden is really on you to show that their conclusions aren't useful enough for us to rely on to compare players, even though we acknowledge that there's going to be some error.
I mean, in this thread we have Nurse at about 25% projected WAR while Jones is at 3%. 25% is about 8 times higher than 3%, but that doesn't mean Nurse is 8 times the player. It simply suggests that neither of them is worth their contract and that Nurse might be slightly more likely to be worth his. That's a fair thing to conclude based on the data. We don't need the math to be that precise to use these metrics as a helpful basis to make comparisons and predictions about the future.
|
LOL
The burden of proof is on the model.
And you appear to be accepting it simply because it is there.