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Originally Posted by Enoch Root
If the value of 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd is 3 times the value of Pettersson, then those picks are being overvalued.
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Pettersson's value depends on how long you have him signed for. He's worth 3 wins per season. Those picks are worth 10 wins,
total. So the total value of those picks is 2/3 of the value of Pettersson on a 5 year deal (which would be worth 15 wins, projected, over the full term of the deal).
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Also, it is impossible to know what the picks are worth without knowing where in the 1st round they fall. Two late round 1sts aren't worth anything close to Pettersson, and every GM in the league would instantly trade them for him.
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True - if they're early picks they're worth more; if they're late picks they're worth less. The valuation in this case is agnostic about where they are - basically you're talking about a random first round pick.
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But any team offer-sheeting Pettersson is probably a team that is competitive now. And of course, adding Pettersson only makes them that much more competitive, reducing the value of those picks.
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I don't really agree. The team that would offer sheet him would likely be the Kraken, and even with Pettersson they're probably a below-average team for the next couple of seasons. I'm not sure who else could do it. If it was Vegas, I might be more inclined to agree with you. But even for a good team it's a risky proposition... When the Maple Leafs added Kessel they expected to be a playoff team, and wound up giving up 2nd overall. There's always a real chance you'll be worse than you thought.