There are complex considerations regarding the potential picks and potential protections to weigh team by team.
If ANA or CBJ is willing to include an unprotected 1st it's a no-brainer to take it and run. Obviously a VGK or TBL unprotected 1st is worth an awful lot less.
From a middling team like CGY or MIN or CHI, would you want a single lightly/un-protected 1st, or two heavily protected 1sts? It seems a sensible opportunity to mitigate risk for both sides.
If CGY's 2022 1st is between 7OA-20OA, BUF receives the pick. If it isn't in that range, BUF receives CGY's 2022 3rd rd pick and CGY's 2024 1st (top 4 protected in perpetuity, with BUF receiving CGY's 3rd each year as necessary).
I'd add a 2023 1st more conditional to Eichel's performance:
- If he plays 60+ games AND scores 60+ points (including playoffs) it is a top 3 protected 1st. If these conditions are met and Calgary is set to pick in the top 3, BUF receives CGY's 2023 2nd and 3rd rd picks.
- If he plays 30-59 games OR scores 30-59 pts, it is the 2023 2nd.
- If less than those, it is the 2023 3rd.
Best of all, it would lock the Flames away from trading away most of their picks.
Dube+Andersson+Pelletier+1st*+1st**
I'd also be trading one of JG/MT for a blue-chip young player+ to replace one of Dube/Pelletier in the deal as the above is probably not quite enough.
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