Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
The chances of a 13th overall pick becoming an NHLer are probably no better than a coin flip. So really, how much risk can there be that he’ll go ufa? It’s far more likely he’ll be a bust.
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Players taken at 13th between 2000 and 2017 (it's too early to tell re. guys taken later than that):
2017 - Nick Suzuki (127 games)
2016 - Jake Bean (44 games)
2015 - Jakub Zboril (44 games)
2014 - Jakub Vrana (284)
2013 - Josh Morrissey (344),
2012 - Radek Faksa (406),
2011 Sven Baertschi (uh oh - still had 291 games played)
2010 - Brandon Gormley (58 games - curiously, the pick the Flames gave up in the Olle Jokinen deal)
2009 - Zack Kassian (552)
2008 - Colton Teubert (58)
2007 - Lars Eller (798)
2006 - Jiri Tlusty (446)
2005 - Marek Zagrapan (0)
2004 - Drew Stafford (841)
2003 - Dustin Brown (1232)
2002 - Alexander Semin (650)
2001 - Ales Hemsky (845)
2000 - Ron Hainsey (1132)
Over the course of 18 years, some of them not even occurring during the post-lockout era, there've been hree busts (Zagrapan, Gormley & Teubert), two or three disappointments (Tlusty, Baertschi, maybe Zboril), eleven successes, and one vomit-inducing guy (Kassian).
13 isn't a bad spot at all, with 61 % of players taken there between 2000 & 2017 having solid careers or starts to their career, and then another 16% at least being somewhat serviceable.
Given that no college commit has ditched a Canadian team in however long, it's unlikely that there's a 39% chance Coronato bails, much less a 50% one.