[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Where does it say that 90% of the league was better? what metric is that? (not asking in a confrontational way i'm legit trying to understand the numbers)

from: https://jfresh.substack.com/p/player-card-20-explainer

Context: Included to provide context are the player’s name, team, position, 2020-21 season age, and contract.

Projected Wins Above Replacement: A big difference with these cards is that the projected WAR value is now presented as a percentile as well. That’s in large part because we’re about to enter a shortened season, which means that a 4 WAR player will actually only provide about 2.7 this year. It also allows me to use more accurate projections.

Wins Above Replacement Components: The top row shows the five most important components of Patrick’s WAR model:

EV Off: Even strength offence. This is an estimate of how a player impacts his team’s even strength scoring chance generation (or expected goals for).

EV Def: Even strength defence. This is an estimate of how a player impacts his team’s even strength scoring chance against prevention (or expected goals against).

PP: Powerplay. Estimate of how a player impacts his team’s powerplay scoring chances. Player must play at least 1 minute per game on the PP to qualify.

PK: Penalty kill. Estimate of how a player impacts his team’s penalty kill scoring chance suppression. Player must play at least 1 minute of PK per game to qualify.

Finishing: An estimate of how a player contributes to his team through his ability to score on the shots he takes above what is expected based on the expected goal model.

Primary Points:

G/60: Even strength goals per 60 minutes.

A1/60: Primary assists per 60 minutes.

High-Danger Passing

HDPasses: This is a new addition. The new WAR model does not take into account teammate finishing at all. In most cases, this makes the results a lot stronger and cuts out a lot of random luck and noise. But there is evidence that some players do create better chances than expected goals can track through their passing ability. To compensate for this I’ve included three-season weighted high-danger passes, as manually tracked by Corey Sznajder.

Quality of Competition/Teammates

QoC: A measure of a player’s quality of competition based on the average time on ice of the players they play against. The variation of this stat is not particularly pronounced, as contrary to popular belief matchups are very fluid. WAR accounts for competition, and this should strictly be considered extra contextual information about how a player has been deployed by their coach.

QoT: This stat applies the same calculation to a player’s linemates. There is less variation here because it’s easier for a coach to control who a guy plays with than who a guy plays against. Once again, this is adjusted for in the metrics and should be looked at as context.

The Graphs: The graphs are based on those same WAR/EV Off/EV Def/Finishing numbers, but instead of showing a three-year sample it splits them up by season. This lets you see how a player’s impact has changed over time - did they improve or decline, did they become better defensively? The bottom graph shows three WAR components: impact on expected goals for (solid blue), against (solid red), and individual finishing (dashed light blue). The top graph shows a simple timeline of overall WAR percentile rank.