[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Ro

This was one of the first things I googled:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/



Looks like about a 20% chance that a mid-3rd plays more than 100 games, and a 15% chance a mid-3rd plays more than 200 games.

Both sets of data can be valid. Games played tend to follow a Pareto distribution, so while only a small percentage of third-round picks play more than 100 games, a few of them play a whole lot more than 100, which drags the mean up.