Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
In terms of regular-season finish:
Before the post-Iginla rebuild: 13/30*, 14/30*, 10/30*, 15/30, 17/30, 17/30. During the rebuild: 25/30, 27/30, 16*/30, 26/30.
After the rebuild was (prematurely) concluded: 15*/30, 20/31, 2*/31, 17*/31, 20/31.
*Made playoffs.
Mean of the 15 years is equivalent to 17th place in a 31-team league, which is as close to average as no matter. The team made the playoffs 7 times out of 15, where the average would have been 7.93.
The only place where the Flames were significantly below average was in playoff results, and the sample size there is so much smaller that the noise drowns out the signal.
The narrative that the Flames have been one of the worst teams is driven entirely by playoff results, which are the least predictable and most chance-driven of the metrics available.
The first round of the playoffs, in particular, is a crapshoot. It is never guaranteed that the better team will win. Tampa Bay got swept in the first round, and followed that with two consecutive championships.
We've seen teams eliminated in the playoffs because of disallowed goals that should have been allowed, allowed goals that should have been disallowed, freak in-series injuries to top players, goal posts and crossbars hit at critical moments, bad penalty calls, bad penalty non-calls, and about 50 other kinds of craziness.
To think that playoff success regularly correlates with the quality of a team requires a fantastic will to ignore the evidence. You can easily convince me that the Flames in the playoffs are hockey's version of Joe Bftsplk, the world's worst jinx, who had a personal raincloud that followed him around wherever he went. (Though the Leafs also have a pretty good claim to that title.) You can't convince me that this is proof that the whole organization is perennially bad.
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So the argument is that the Flames are slightly below average in the regular season over the past 15 years, and their league bottom 5 playoff performance is because of bad luck.
So they haven't been bad. They have been average except when it counts, where they are horrible, but we will ignore those results because of bad luck.
This might be the statement that takes the least accountability for performance I have ever seen. We aren't bad, we are jinxed.
This sounds like the type of sales pitch made to Flames owners every year!
"We have been almost average the last 15 years, and if we weren't jinxed by a witch we would be good in the playoffs - Please let us keep the course - The curse can only have a life so long!"