Quote:
Originally Posted by Dion
The government can't admit that there are extraterrestrials, because if they do, that'll open up a whole keg of worms.
|
If the government had proof of extraterrestrials, I don't think that is a secret that could be kept very long, especially if more than 1,000 people have that knowledge.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0147905
Quote:
|
In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy. Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure.
|