Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz
Does that take into account the fact that many players are defensemen and goalies?
Because it honestly doesn't seem right to me. Just looking at the 2010, 2011, 2014, even the 2017 draft, it looks like almost all the forwards in that range became top 6, if not 1st line forwards.
Maybe it's because 48 points is quite a bit to average over a career. Many players spend 4 years on the 2nd line, and then 4 years on the third line, thus lowering their average point per game.
Even a Hall of Famer like Patrick Marleau only averages 55 points per 82 games. So he barely makes the cut I guess.
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I'll answer: yes it accounts for D and G. There was a second post behind the one that was quoted in the Draft Percentages thread I think better represents the percentages.
The major limitation with the model is that currently the data I have is not granular enough to analyze players Draft + range (say players in their D+5 to D+7 years). IMO that is a severe limitation because you can't compare players apples-to-apples over a number of draft years without it and something I'm working to update.
What was done to compensate was the career ppg was lowered. There are 194 top 6 players identified in the top 6 bucket in the percentages below.
My guess is that when the stats are updated, the percentages will go up slightly and the distribution will look very similar. What I think drags the percentages down more than anything is the players that haven't reached their peak (ie. the 2015 to 2020 draft classes) career averages are included. With better data this will be easier to sort out.
I would also have liked to pull players D0 and D-1 data but I couldn't find that in tabular form anywhere so if anyone has something on this please let me know.
Here are the numbers with the lowered percentages:
For >0.69 (Top line guys) the percentages are (78 guys in this bucket now. Who wants the 12 top line bottom feeders anyway… they are in the 2nd line bucket now):
Top 3 pick: 54%
4-6 pick: 22%
7-15 pick: 10%
15-32 pick: 6%
2nd RD: 2.4%
3rd RD: 0.8%
4th RD: 0.3%
5th RD: 0.8%
6th RD: 0.3%
7th RD: 0.4%
Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward >0.54 PT/GP (I think there were 194 F in the bucket)
Top 3 pick: 81%
4-6 pick: 54%
7-15 pick: 31%
15-32 pick: 16%
2nd RD: 6%
3rd RD: 3%
4th RD: 2%
5th RD: 0.8%
6th RD: 0.3%
7th RD: 0.4%