[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

Hey All! I've really appreciated the feedback and comments on this and you've motivated me to find better stats. There is enough interest beyond myself that I'll share this when I get done. The goal of better stats will be to:

a) provide stats of players relative to their draft year ie. players D+7 to D+12 years
b) Include TOI/GP as a metric for D in addition to PT/GP to balance defensive D.
c) Get better goalie stats (not sure what I'm going to use). I'll probably decide what gives me the best x-section of buckets of goalies.

The good news is the way I built the model I should be able to swap out the stats without a large amount of pain.

I'll also aim to provide some results of how the Flames have drafted relative to the rest of the NHL.

The model already does this by fitting an exponential line of best fit to the Forward, D and G data and then measures whether a draft pick exceeded that line as a measure of a successful pick. I'd like to get the player metrics and philosophy more accurate and before providing that info. For the stats junkies I'll provide the R squared and STD DEV info too.

The model is sliceable by years as well so I can actually evaluate the draft performance of each of the Flames GMs over the last 20 years. Just a disclaimer that it will be really hard to tell anything about Treliving given that it usually takes 5-7 years after drafting a player to really see what you have (think more Mangiapane vs Gaudreau).

Having said that I'd be interested in others suggestions in what they think would add value and I'll consider using those too.

Just drafting this e-mail explaining what you do is more effort than I would ever put in (let alone doing the actual work!). Thanks for the effort, it is an interesting project and I think will help many of us understand the true odds of success at the draft.