When you use this draft pick evaluations to show the lack of value in trading a top-6 forward 48 PT in a season then you also have to evaluate whether the 48 pt top-6 guy will remain at that level. Backlund might have qualified under your critera. Will he ever get 48 pts again?
Monahan would likely qualify as a top-3 guy in your scheme after his 84 pt season in 2018-19. Will he hit 60 again? Will he dropped off of your list of successful #6 overall. Will he remain a #6 OA pick that beat the odds?
Monahan put up a ho-hum 34-pt rookie season in D+1 when he could have been dominating the OHL that is bringing his career average down because the Flames didn't have any Centres at the time.
Erik Karlson got traded for prospects and picks and not likely he is the ppg D man ever again that SJ thought they were getting.
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