Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
High-end forwards, especially C's, are especially hard to find the further down you go.
The Scheifeles and Kopitars and Getzlafs and Ahos and Bergerons and Points are still out there, so whether you're pick 8th or 80th, IMO you really have to priotize C.
While still rare, you're a lot more likely to find a great goalie, D, or winger in the later rounds (or undrafted).
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I actually looked the D too using PT/GP. Admittedly using PT/GP is disingenuous to the Tanev’s, Scandella’s and Carlo’s of the world and overly generous to the Justin Schultz and Erik Gustaffson’s but when at the group in aggregate it does feel relatively accurate.
For >0.44 (Top 2 guys) the percentages are (57 guys):
Top 3 pick: 42%
4-6 pick: 25%
7-15 pick: 18%
15-32 pick: 6%
2nd RD: 4%
3rd RD: 2%
4th RD: 2%
5th RD: 2%
6th RD: 0.5%
7th RD: 0%
Here are to odds of drafting a top 4 D >0.29 PT/GP (143 guys):
Top 3 pick: 92%
4-6 pick: 35%
7-15 pick: 34%
15-32 pick: 19%
2nd RD: 12%
3rd RD: 5%
4th RD: 5%
5th RD: 5%
6th RD: 2%
7th RD: 1%
You do have a better chance to get a good D in the later rounds. It’s still really long odds though.
Here are the goalies based on GP/year. This one is more subjective however looking and the sample and who fits in the buckets most of the names you’d expect to be in the group are there.
Starter (>19 GP/YR. 37 guys in the bucket)
Top 3 pick: 100%
4-6 pick: 0%
7-15 pick: 22%
15-32 pick: 24%
2nd RD: 13%
3rd RD: 9%
4th RD: 5%
5th RD: 2%
6th RD: 3%
7th RD: 2%
Back-up goalies are always available so really no need to look at them.