Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
Career average skews this way too high IMO.
In the last 20 years, only 59 guys have averages 0.78 or higher (500+ gp in that time). This includes a few players who played games before 2002 which may bump them up or down.
<0.78:
Vanek Parise Voracek Briere Nash Krejci Couture Perry Pacioretty Landeskog Monahan ROR Zibanejad Marleau J Carter O Jokinen
and many others. Most of the above had 5+ years as top-line players.
It's always hard to account for career trajectory in this kind of analysis. Aside from the greatest, most very good players follow a path resembling:
~2 years 3rd liner
~2 years 2nd liner
~5 years 1st liner
~3 years 2nd liner
~3 years 3rd liner
That would be a darn good 15 year career for any pick (other than maybe #1-3OA)
From a draft pick value standpoint, the first 8-12 years of a career are probably the most relevant, as most players will complete their lifecycle with a team in that time (getting traded at some point likely means positive value, too).
I wonder if it's possible to limit the averages to the first 10 years of a career? Or under age ~30?
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You are bang on and the career PT/GP is even more disingenuous to the rookies than the vets. I original had the number at >0.69 for top line players and, while I don't have the year by year stats for each player to take a players D+7 to D+12 (25yo to 30yo) stats and look only at that, I can lower PT/GP and look at those numbers:
For >0.69 (Top line guys) the percentages are (78 guys in this bucket now. Who wants the 12 top line bottom feeders anyway… they are in the 2nd line bucket now):
Top 3 pick: 54%
4-6 pick: 22%
7-15 pick: 10%
15-32 pick: 6%
2nd RD: 2.4%
3rd RD: 0.8%
4th RD: 0.3%
5th RD: 0.8%
6th RD: 0.3%
7th RD: 0.4%
Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward >0.54 PT/GP
Top 3 pick: 81%
4-6 pick: 54%
7-15 pick: 31%
15-32 pick: 16%
2nd RD: 6%
3rd RD: 3%
4th RD: 2%
5th RD: 0.8%
6th RD: 0.3%
7th RD: 0.4%
I draw the same general conclusions as my original post.
I also should have mentioned how surprised I was at how little value a 2nd and 3rd rounders hold. I’d be handing those out like candy for top 6 forwards. For example, the Arvidsson trade is basically Arvidsson for virtually no chance of drafting a player as good as Arvidsson.