Career average skews this way too high IMO.
In the last 20 years, only 59 guys have averages 0.78 or higher (500+ gp in that time). This includes a few players who played games before 2002 which may bump them up or down.
<0.78:
Vanek Parise Voracek Briere Nash Krejci Couture Perry Pacioretty Landeskog Monahan ROR Zibanejad Marleau J Carter O Jokinen
and many others. Most of the above had 5+ years as top-line players.
It's always hard to account for career trajectory in this kind of analysis. Aside from the greatest, most very good players follow a path resembling:
~2 years 3rd liner
~2 years 2nd liner
~5 years 1st liner
~3 years 2nd liner
~3 years 3rd liner
That would be a darn good 15 year career for any pick (other than maybe #1-3OA)
From a draft pick value standpoint, the first 8-12 years of a career are probably the most relevant, as most players will complete their lifecycle with a team in that time (getting traded at some point likely means positive value, too).
I wonder if it's possible to limit the averages to the first 10 years of a career? Or under age ~30?
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