Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post

Drunk Uncle · 07-02-2021, 11:31 AM

Hopefully this is worthy of a new thread. I wasn’t 100% on whether I was going to share this but with the draft coming up soon I thought this would be timely.

I was really intrigued by some earlier posts and ongoing discussion focused around acquiring picks and the value of those picks if we do. The part that intrigued me most was whether it is worth trying to land a Brayden Point in the draft or whether you need to draft high in the draft (top 3).

Everything I have found written about draft success was centric to the number of games a player played post draft. That really doesn’t tell you much about how good the player is and from my perspective you need top 6 players (specifically top line players) with your draft picks because those are the hardest to trade for. To that end, I looked at the last 20 years of drafts and added PT/GP to the equation for forwards (data from hockey db). Using a career average of 0.78 PT/GP (64pts) as threshold from a top line player here are the odds of selecting a top 3 forward:

Top 3 pick: 44%
4-6 pick: 15%
7-15 pick: 3.5%
15-32 pick: 3.5%
2nd RD: 1.3%
3rd RD: 0.8%
4th RD: 0.3%
5th RD: 0.5%
6th RD: 0.3%
7th RD: 0%

Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward (0.59 PT/GP or 48 pts):
Top 3 pick: 73%
4-6 pick: 41%
7-15 pick: 25%
15-32 pick: 13%
2nd RD: 5%
3rd RD: 2%
4th RD: 1%
5th RD: 2%
6th RD: 1%
7th RD: 1%

I also built the data out to look at defense (using PT/GP and heavier weight on GP) and goalies (GP/season) and even went as far as evaluating every NHLs team draft performance. This looks at how many players a team drafted above the average PT/GP player at that pick position. I can also look at slices of years (not just 20). If you’d like to see something, let me know and I’ll try and grab the slice with that data. Only thing I'll say is that the data is

For me the results highlights that draft picks, especially late first rounders, are not as valuable as they are continually made out to be. What surprised me is that is basically a 50/50 chance of drafting a top line forward with a top 3 pick. I would have thought it would have been higher.

Others may draw different conclusions but what this meant for me as a Flames fan is, if the Flames choose not to re-build, I’m 100% ok trading our 12th overall if we can get a top 6 forward back. It also means there is zero chance I’m trading Tkachuk, Gaudreau or Monahan unless:
a) We are re-building
b) We get the best player back
c) They want out and force our hand

07-02-2021, 11:31 AM	#1
Drunk Uncle Crash and Bang Winger Join Date: Dec 2017 Exp:	Draft Percentages Hopefully this is worthy of a new thread. I wasn’t 100% on whether I was going to share this but with the draft coming up soon I thought this would be timely. I was really intrigued by some earlier posts and ongoing discussion focused around acquiring picks and the value of those picks if we do. The part that intrigued me most was whether it is worth trying to land a Brayden Point in the draft or whether you need to draft high in the draft (top 3). Everything I have found written about draft success was centric to the number of games a player played post draft. That really doesn’t tell you much about how good the player is and from my perspective you need top 6 players (specifically top line players) with your draft picks because those are the hardest to trade for. To that end, I looked at the last 20 years of drafts and added PT/GP to the equation for forwards (data from hockey db). Using a career average of 0.78 PT/GP (64pts) as threshold from a top line player here are the odds of selecting a top 3 forward: Top 3 pick: 44% 4-6 pick: 15% 7-15 pick: 3.5% 15-32 pick: 3.5% 2nd RD: 1.3% 3rd RD: 0.8% 4th RD: 0.3% 5th RD: 0.5% 6th RD: 0.3% 7th RD: 0% Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward (0.59 PT/GP or 48 pts): Top 3 pick: 73% 4-6 pick: 41% 7-15 pick: 25% 15-32 pick: 13% 2nd RD: 5% 3rd RD: 2% 4th RD: 1% 5th RD: 2% 6th RD: 1% 7th RD: 1% I also built the data out to look at defense (using PT/GP and heavier weight on GP) and goalies (GP/season) and even went as far as evaluating every NHLs team draft performance. This looks at how many players a team drafted above the average PT/GP player at that pick position. I can also look at slices of years (not just 20). If you’d like to see something, let me know and I’ll try and grab the slice with that data. Only thing I'll say is that the data is For me the results highlights that draft picks, especially late first rounders, are not as valuable as they are continually made out to be. What surprised me is that is basically a 50/50 chance of drafting a top line forward with a top 3 pick. I would have thought it would have been higher. Others may draw different conclusions but what this meant for me as a Flames fan is, if the Flames choose not to re-build, I’m 100% ok trading our 12th overall if we can get a top 6 forward back. It also means there is zero chance I’m trading Tkachuk, Gaudreau or Monahan unless: a) We are re-building b) We get the best player back c) They want out and force our hand