Every year Duncan Keith outperforms his shot differential and xG stats by more than anyone else on the Blackhawks d core. It’s not a 1 year or small sample thing. When he’s on the ice the hawks consistently are above water in 5v5 goals despite otherwise being a pretty terrible 5v5 team.
There is something about their system and style that is allowing him to be more effective than it appears. I think they get hemmed in their DZ more often, and he can still skate well enough and make effective long range passes to get the puck up the ice to contribute opportunities, jump into plays effectively, etc.
If you watch him he can still skate quite well, just not near his prime. He has marginal hands and shooting skills, but is high iq in reads, and decision making. He can still retrieve the puck decent. He’s just not going to win a ton of net front or board battles, and would be at his best on a team that can let him focus on transition play.... and pair him with a defensive battler (nurse?)... find the next seabrook that complements him.
I believe if used in a different system he will surprise many by being quite effective. He’s an insane athlete that trains very hard. He’d easily improve Edmonton’s d core, and believe sometimes you need to look further than shot differentials. There are exceptions out there, based on context of systems, styles, teammates, coach asks, that can make differentials mistelling in some situations. They are a great tool and can be very effective as a guide, but this is not a player that is “done”. He’s a legit contributor still in the right role as a second or ideally third pairing defender. He would be a complete mismatch for opposition in a 3rd pairing role.
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