[CASe333]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Or if you don't have faith any of the plyers left have much of a shot so you might as well get more darts to throw.

I think quite often when 1st round picks get traded up or down, it's because one team thinks there are only a couple of players left worth picking and the other team doesn't see anyone to get excited about.

I would love to see some analysis of how those trades usually work out. My gut tells me that most of the time, neither team really wins or loses much.

Sometimes there is a clear winner and trading down has worked out big a few times in the last decade. There are a bunch of examples from 2010 draft. Here is a summary of first round trade down/ups I found notable since 2010. I've noted total nhl games played for each pick along with total points or NGP (no games played in NHL).

2010

Panthers Trade Down/Kings Up
Panthers Traded • 2010 first round pick (#15-Derek Forbort 331gp, 65pts) to Kings for • 2010 first round pick (#19-Nick Bjugstad 483gp, 224pts) • 2010 second round pick (#59-Jason Zucker 509gp, 273 pts) on 2010-06-25

Panthers kills this trading down and getting two NHL players that are around 0.5pts/game vs a serviceable defenceman.


Arizona trade down/Montreal Up
Arizona Traded • 2010 first round pick (#22-Jarred Tinordi (NHL 102 gp, 12pts) • 2010 fourth round pick (#113-Mark MacMillan NGP) to Canadiens for • 2010 first round pick (#27-Mark Visentin NGP) • 2010 second round pick (#57-Oscar Lindberg gp 252, 79pts) on 2010-06-25

Edge to Arizona picking Oscar Lindberg with their 2nd round pick. Noteworthy Lindberg played no games for Arizona and he was traded to NYR for Ethan Werek so Arizona still managed to get nothing out of this.


Chicago trade down/NY Islanders Up
Chicago Traded • 2010 first round pick (#30-Brock Nelson 604gp, 328pts) to Islanders for • 2010 second round pick (#35-Ludvig Rensfeldt NGP) • 2010 second round pick (#58-Kent Simpson 1gp) on 2010-06-25

Clear win for NYI trading up to get Brock Nelson.


Slightly different example since picks from different years but along similar premises from 2010 draft:
Ottawa trades 2010 pick #16 Vladmir Tarasenko 531gp, 442pts for 2009 pick #17 David Runblad 113gp, 25pts.
Ouch!!!


2011

Ducks trade down/Leafs up
Ducks Traded • 2011 first round pick (#22-Tyler Biggs NGP) to Maple Leafs for • 2011 first round pick (#30-Rickard Rakell 499 gp, 311pts) • 2011 second round pick (#39-John Gibson 328gp, 148 wins) on 2011-06-24

Wow that ones is particularly bad for leafs trading up. All star goalie and all star right wing and they get nothing serviceable in return! Trading down wigs big again.


Senators trade down/Wings Up
Senators Traded • 2011 second round pick (#35-Tomas Jurco 221gp, 53pts) • 2011 second round pick (#48-Xavier Ouellet 178gp, 28pts) to Red Wings for • 2011 first round pick (#24-Matt Puempel 87gp, 16pts) on 2011-06-24

Edge Wings but nothing too exciting.


2012

Flames trade down/Sabres up
Flames Traded • 2012 first round pick (#14-Zemgus Girgensons 489gp, 138pts) to Sabres for • 2012 first round pick (#21-Mark Jankowski 253gp, 75pts) • 2012 second round pick (#42-Patrick Sieloff 2gp, 2pts) on 2012-06-22

Flames wins this clearly with Sieloff a 1pt per game average. Joking aside in the end edge goes to Sabres but nothing to get excited about.


2013

Wings trade down/Sharks Up
Wings Traded • 2013 first round pick (#18-Mirco Mueller 185gp, 28pts) to Sharks for • 2013 first round pick (#20-Anthony Mantha 316gp. 202pts) • 2013 second round pick (#58-Tyler Bertuzzi 208gp, 126 pts) on 2013-06-30

Pretty big win for Wings trading down to get two potential all stars (Bertuzzi has been all-star already 2020).


2014

Sharks trade down/Hawks up
Sharks Traded • 2014 first round pick (#20-Nick Schmaltz 301gp, 182 pts) • 2014 sixth round pick (#179-Ivan Nalimov NGP) to Blackhawks for • 2014 first round pick (#27-Nikolay Goldobin 125gp, 46pts) • 2014 third round pick (#62-Justin Kirkland NGP) on 2014-06-27

Clear edge to Hawks at this point but I suspect Nick Schmaltz totals overinflated playing with Kane and in the end after all careers are finished this turns out to be closer to a wash.

No examples in 2015 then I think 2016 draft is too recent for many of the picks to have played in NHL so hard to evaluate.

Out of these examples from 2010-2014 trading down netted huge returns in three of the trades. There is one example (two if you count Schmaltz trade) where trading up has shown to be a major win. The other trades (~3) are closer to a wash.

If I'm bored later I'll look at 2005-2009 drafts. These retrospective analyses are always fun to look at.