Quote:
Originally Posted by timun
Nah nah nah nah, there's some **ckery going on here. You're also selling Marchand short by presenting "all-situations" points vs 5on5, which totally glosses over the fact that Marchand was about as prolific on the penalty kill as he was on the power play.
Marchand
All Situations: Goals - 67, Points - 133, PPG- 0.61
5V5: Goals - 41 48, Points - 96 109, PPG - 0.44 0.50
SH: Goals - 8, Points - 11
PP: Goals - 11, Points - 13
Mangiapane
All Situations: Goals - 43. Points - 77, PPG - 0.43 PPG
5V5: Goals - 38 40, Points-68 70, PPG - 0.38 PPG 0.39
SH: Goals - 1, Points - 1
PP: Goals - 2, Points - 6
The rest of your "advanced" 5v5 stats are thus extremely suspect.
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No trickery here at all. His all situation production was higher, I acknowledged that. That includes PP, SH, and would include 4x4 and 3x3 as well. I never said that his all situation production was solely due to PP time.
However at 5v5 the production both at a per game, and a per 60 minutes of ice time level is pretty close.
And you can call the advanced stats suspect all you want but 5v5 production, primary points, and looking at points per 60 has proven to be the best indicator of future production over the long haul. Nothing suspect about it at all.
Honestly the in-season stats mean nothing and the PPG numbers are way more valuable as it adjusts for Marchands lockout shortened season and Mangiapanes two Covid shortened seasons.
And yes in terms of overall impact Marchand was more proven at that point. His .61 PPG in all situations totally eclipses, Mangiapanes .43 PPG. But it’s tough to say that Mangiapane couldn’t have that impact, he just hasn’t been given the special teams opportunity until late in this season.
All that we know is that at 5v5 Mangiapane has been a great play driver, with strong production that puts him in the “first liner” range of production at 5v5. And that at 5v5 his production is very similar to Marchand at the same age.
Doesn’t necessarily mean his rate if production would stay the same with more ice time leading to more total points, and doesn’t mean that he should have been on the first unit PP or PK up to this point. (honestly I don’t think up to Monahans decline this season that you’re removing any of the big 4 forwards off that top unit).
But it means that their might be untapped potential there because in the minutes he has been given up to this point in his career, he’s produced really well and been a strong contributor to this team.
In 13-14 I would have never guess that Marchand would become the player he has become. And there is no guarantee that Mangiapane takes those same steps that Marchand does, Marchand is the more the exception than the rule.
All I’m saying is that at this point of their careers there are a lot of similarities between the two players. I don’t think that’s that controversial of a statement at all.
And based on how the salary cap has grown $4.5M in 13-14 is the equivalent of $5.7M in an $81.5M cap. So I stand by saying that anything around $5M over 5+ years for Mangiapane would be a great piece of business.