Quote:
Originally Posted by DownhillGoat
You honestly think it's only going to be 4 months? In N/A maybe but I still find that optimistic.
Most places that actually manufacturer most things are way behind our timeline. Bike parts are still ~400 days behind. The whole microchip issue is pushing some products back 1-2 years.
I don't see that demand crashing until early next year at the absolute earliest.
I also don't think the CERB/mortgage defaults will be anywhere close to what people expected. We're already long past banks holding mortgage payments and seeing very little fallout. I think the people that worked 3x more hours in the last year, transfers from parents, inheritance, pandemic wage increases, etc are going to far outweigh the opposite.
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Moreso saying the manufacturing backlogs dictate that there is basically 0 risk of a steep down turn in the next 4 months. The shear momentum being built up in supply chains to try to catch up would take at least 4 months to stop, so base manufacturing levels will keep the economy humming for at least that long.
Things could keep going and things could turn down, but I wouldn't worry about a down turn this summer.