Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Presumably you have more than one star, so if you have a couple 30 goal scorers and a few more 20 goal men, they cover each other off. We are really talking top 6. I’d expect 70-75% of the offence from top 6 players, considering they are also the ones on the power play. Maybe 15-20% from the third line and my better Dmen, and then if I can get 10% of my goals from the 4th I’m good.
TB had 12 goals (out of 180 total) from their present bottom 4. Canes had 14 of 175. Vegas, a team without a lot of elite firepower, had 11 of 190. Calgary was worse, and mixed up lines too much to analyze, but the best bottom 4 you could imagine - say Ryan, Ritchie and Leivo, scored 12 of out Calgary’s 155 goals. Obviously those guys each saw higher line duty, though so the analysis is flawed. That said, put that exact line together and I could see 12 goals anyway. 4 goals apiece? Sure.
BUT Calgary is not getting anywhere with none of the top guys scoring 20 in 56. Winnipeg is a pretty meh PO team and they had 3 guys over 20. Only Nashville and the Isles didn’t have any 20 goal men. And I sure doubt they get past the first round.
|
Yes, if what you're saying is the case, then 10% of goals from the 4th line would equate to roughly 20 to 30 goals depending on how many goals your team scores.
So that's also roughly 20-30 points per 4th liner which is a fair range. I don't know why you're just looking at total goals from each 4th liner either because defensemen also figure into the scoring as well on a line. So disregarding assists completely isn't a reliable indicator of line success.
Patrick Maroon for instance had 18 points in 55 games. So he ultimately figured in on roughly 10% of his team's goals, which based on your number, would put him right where he needs to be. Joakim Nordstrom on the other hand, 4ish%. Well under the mark you set.