[Calgary4LIfe]

I think the following statements are both true:

1) This team is very talented.
2) This team is not close to being a contender.

I do think this is a playoff team that has under-performed. FWIW, this is a better team than what it has shown so far. However, does it REALLY matter in the grand scope of things? What's the goal? To be the 1968-2004 St. Louis Blues, rarely ever missing the playoffs, but never being a serious contender, and never winning a cup during that time? Is that really the goal? If so, I argue that the Flames are not far from that goal. Sutter will make this a playoff team for sure, and IF the right match-up falls into their laps, then possibly even be a 2nd round team.

This team has some obvious holes, but it seems like the biggest hole is one that isn't very obvious to many. The biggest hole is on defence.

This is 2021, not 1921 or even 1980, or even 2000.

If Giordano is your best 2-way defencemen at 38 years of age, then you have a problem. Bigger problem yet is if next season he isn't on the team. Then it becomes an unmistakable glaring issue.

Tanev is the best traditional defensive defencemen (though he doesn't give you the physicality that you kind of expect as a defensive defencemen). However, he is 100% elite at it. To play through broken ribs? That's amazing. To play through broken ribs and have nobody even guess that he is doing so? That's completely otherworldly. I have no problem with Tanev and who he is as a defencemen. Give that guy his accolades - he deserves every one.

My argument is that Tanev only helps this team by helping them not to lose. That's fine if he is paired with a rover that can help this team to win. Then you have probably have an elite pairing.

Giordano + Tanev = almost an elite pairing at both ends of the ice.
Hanifin + Tanev = an elite shutdown pairing that helps you not lose, but does nothing else.
Hughes + Tanev = elite pairing.

I think a pairing should be one that helps you at both ends of the ice. Calgary doesn't have a good partner for Tanev. Hanifin is not offensive enough. Neither is Andersson.

In today's NHL, if your team does not have a top 4 that is good at both ends of the ice, then I argue that you are trying to play handicapped. You most certainly can have Tanev in your top 4, and even in your top pairing in a pinch, especially if his partner is a defencemen that puts up solid numbers.

I think the Flames are in big trouble next season. This season they had 3 dependable defencemen on defence, and only one on offence. Next season - if everything stays the same - they have only 2 defencemen playing solid defence (maybe elite - Tanev is elite, and Hanifin has been very, very good if not close to elite), and zero offensive guys.

They are closer to a rebuilding team than a playoff team, much less a contender. How do I figure? They are entering the season as a young team with growing pains might - by hoping that their young players take a step forward.

Hanifin - took a gigantic step forward defensively this season. Absolutely huge. However, offensively? A step back, as well as probably not too high of ceiling as it is. He is good on the transition (very good), but his shooting and vision is very ordinary. I don't see him as a real offensive type, and don't see him getting more than 40 odd points in a season - good, but if he is your 'premier' offensive D, then I argue that your D as a unit is lacking.

Andersson - didn't take a step forward offensively or defensively. Was obvious that he wasn't ready for top pairing duty. This team needs him to take a step both defensively and offensively next season.

Valimaki - disappointing, but young. Still, this team needs him to take a big step forward at everything.

Kylington - ditto.

Mackey - well, I want to say ditto, but he was not disappointing as there were no expectations really. Still, he needs to take steps forward.

Stone was good defensively, and he has a nice shot, but he has always been poor on the transition. I think the Flames should re-sign him as he is fine for a 6th D, but then the argument is that he ends up blocking a young 2-way guy from getting the minutes he needs to develop, so I will be happy if the Flames re-sign him, and happy if they don't.

Nesterov - he didn't provide anything other than 'fine', which is great for a 6th D. However, what's the point? He is not big and physical, not great defensively, not great offensively, not great in transition - he is just 'fine' to me. Fine doesn't cut it if you can't be better than average at something.

When you are going to enter a season with one elite defensive D, and hoping everyone else is young and needs to take a big step forward, that sounds more like a rebuilding team, no? This team is going to look worse without Giordano next season, and that scares me.

Yes, letting Brodie walk was a huge mistake (elite-level shot-suppression, zone exits including forecheck evasion and transition, with high level of playmaking/vision). Getting pieces like Gustafsson, Forbort and Fantenberg instead of giving reps to a guy like Kylington was a huge mistake in hindsight - maybe he could have taken a step or two forward by now?

Flames are going to have to figure this out for next season. The defence needs to be revamped. You can't go into a new season hoping that pretty much everyone (except Tanev, who was elite at defence) takes a BIG step forward. The Flames this year are one of the lowest scoring team from the D in the league. Remove Gio's numbers, and suddenly it looks as if you are a "just blown it up to start a rebuild" level.


Other holes on the team:


Backup goalie - I am fearful that this team will have an 'automatic loss' backup again. Those years of Kipper + Automatic Loss Backup still haunts me.
Size/Physicality/Speed - this team needs to be bigger in the top 9. No, Ritchie and Lucic and Nordstrom don't count. That's the whole point - to not try to force someone into a top 9 spot - especially a top 6 spot. It was a huge mistake to have played Ritchie with Gaudreau and Monahan, but at the same time, that line needed a physical guy with some wheels (which Ritchie has) but with some complimentary skills too (which Ritchie absolutely does not have). Losing guys like Ferland and Bennett is unfortunate, as these guys are difficult to find, and you generally have to overpay in trades or the UFA market to obtain one.
Right Winger who is actually a RHS, who can play with skilled players and can fill the 'size/physicality/speed' hole on the team too.
Centre who can be an upgrade on what the Flames have. Tough to compete without one.
Better depth guys that can score, add to the speed and physicality too, and who are solid PK'ers. Essentially, Nordstrom would be ideal if he could get 10 goals and 10 assists a year playing off the 4th line. Hopefully bigger guys too - a big crash line that is good defensively, is fast, and can generate some offence every third game or so as a line.

Fix all of that - including defence, and you are a contender.

This team is talented. There are a lot of good pieces on this team. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm, Backlund, Mangiapane, Markstrom - that's a good portion of your core. It is just missing a better centre, a bit more size and physicality IN THIS CORE, needs a way better modern defence capable of not only helping you not to lose, but also helping you to win, and some better depth guys and maybe a legitimate RHS RW'er with a good shot.

Retool is a big ask to fill these holes. I will guess that a good retool will help get this team to that 1968-2004 level of the Blues - almost a certainty that they make the playoffs, occasionally win a round, but that's pretty much it.

I think a rebuild is more likely to result in an actual championship calibre team. Just too many holes now in too many places in the lineup. Hardest thing to get is an elite level centre, and the 2nd hardest to get is an elite-level defencemen. Everything else has been difficult enough to acquire - even cheap solid depth has been spotty at best, and support players have saddled this team with buyouts and cap heavy deals that sucked.

I am all for a retool, and I do think that if you bring this team back exactly the way it is today, that Sutter will make them a playoff team for sure. That's all it will be, however, at least in my opinion.

Anyone feel like this team has been playing a cruel version of 'whack a mole' for a few years now?

Monahan = a legit #1 centre for a while.
Gaudreau = elite game-breaker
Lindholm = top line RW'er, very good centre
Tkachuk = elite game-breaker
Backlund = Selke-level defensive centre
Giordano - Brodie - elite (best in the NHL, actually) pairing
Bennett - can't miss top-line centre that would be as good or better than Monahan

Just needed a legit goalie. Maybe support pieces. Got the goalie, now it seems need a better centre. Oh no, just traded what we thought was a dud and may actually be the best centre away. Oops, just let Brodie walk, and now Giordano is old - need a new top pairing! Need an actual decent coach. Not him. This one is a dud. This is a dud too. This one works! Oh no, too late!


I do think this team is talented enough to make the playoffs even with the holes, especially with Sutter having a better system and squeezing everything out of this core. I would bet money on it, barring any significant injuries. This same exact group should make the playoffs next season, but they will not be more than 1st round fodder, or at best a 2nd round exit because they got a really good match-up.



It is going to be interesting to see what happens this off-season.