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1qqaaz · 05-14-2021, 10:37 AM

If the Flames win every remaining game, the only team they can "pass" in the standings is Chicago. The Flames would do this by winning 2 of the last 3 games. The Flames cannot mathematically catch up to Dallas, NY Rangers or Philly. Arizona isn't picking.

However, the only team that can pass Calgary in points is Vancouver. That's only possible if Vancouver goes 3-0-1 and Calgary goes 0-3.
That's extremely unlikely.

So Calgary is pretty much locked into the 11th-12th picks.
Based on Tankathon, these are the odds (Arizona messes things up a bit):

1st OA: 3.0% chance
2nd OA: 3.3% chance
11th OA: 78.9% chance
12th OA: 14.4% chance
Total: 99.6% chance.
The chances of picking 10th a more than nothing (I mentioned Vancouver), and the chances of picking 13th are zero.

So after picking 11th/12th, a top 2 pick is the next most likely option.
So start looking at who you have 11th, because that's very likely will the Flames will pick.

05-14-2021, 10:37 AM	#438
1qqaaz Franchise Player Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Indiana Exp:	If the Flames win every remaining game, the only team they can "pass" in the standings is Chicago. The Flames would do this by winning 2 of the last 3 games. The Flames cannot mathematically catch up to Dallas, NY Rangers or Philly. Arizona isn't picking. However, the only team that can pass Calgary in points is Vancouver. That's only possible if Vancouver goes 3-0-1 and Calgary goes 0-3. That's extremely unlikely. So Calgary is pretty much locked into the 11th-12th picks. Based on Tankathon, these are the odds (Arizona messes things up a bit): 1st OA: 3.0% chance 2nd OA: 3.3% chance 11th OA: 78.9% chance 12th OA: 14.4% chance Total: 99.6% chance. The chances of picking 10th a more than nothing (I mentioned Vancouver), and the chances of picking 13th are zero. So after picking 11th/12th, a top 2 pick is the next most likely option. So start looking at who you have 11th, because that's very likely will the Flames will pick. Last edited by 1qqaaz; 05-14-2021 at 10:46 AM.