Flames better get this right.
When Tkachuk is 'on', he is a franchise-level type of talent. He hasn't been 'on' for a while, however, and with a 9 million QO option coming up + the possibility of him becoming a UFA early, this off-season is the best time to trade him.
What happens if he has another poor year? His value tanks even more outside of the fact that he needs to have a 9 million QO. He would be stupid not to bet on himself and just accept the 9 million QO, and then do his best to then sign a higher dollar, longer term deal. That's a gamble. His value will be very low.
So do you gamble on bringing him back and hoping he turns the corner, and plays 'nice' on his contract? Or do you offload him and salvage value?
This is a tough decision to make. If you look at the players who are looking better under Sutter, you see Gaudreau and Lindholm as pieces that are fitting-in. Some people may be surprised with that, but that's because they still live in a world that Darryl's system is all about running guys through the boards. Darryl needs fast players that work hard constantly - go on the forecheck and always put a lot of pressure on the puck. That's why Gaudreau and Lindholm - who in my opinion always seem to work hard and have high GAF metres, are having success.
Monahan and Tkachuk - the two slower forwards - are struggling. In Monahan's defence, I do see him working hard. Anyone going to dispute that? I haven't ever seen him play this physical consistently before. I can see why Darryl is liking him, and he has been way better defensively too. Plus, he does have the 'playing through an injury' excuse (which may or may not be true). However, if Monahan's injury is something minor that is not affecting his shot or skating, then I will at least put him into the 'not working out' bin.
When it comes to Tkachuk, he is not working out under Sutter, and he isn't looking like his GAF metre is all that high. I am sure it is, but at the same time, it doesn't appear to be the case. The last thing anyone should question is Tkachuk's GAF metre, but here we are.
I think Tkachuk is the risk right now. If he doesn't fit under Darryl and flounders next season, I think his value tanks substantially as now you have to qualify him at 9 million to retain him, even though he is playing poorly. What team wants to take risk on? I am sure 31 other teams will want to, but at a substantially lower value.
I don't know why Tkachuk isn't fitting in and succeeding under Sutter. Yes, his skating is a reasonable argument to make, but I could rather easily make the counter-argument as well that he USED to get where he needed to be and made for an excellent forechecker for his first couple of seasons here.
Gaudreau LOOKS like he is working out well under Sutter now, but is that just a little bit of a hot streak? I know at the start of the season, he was riding an extremely hot shooting percentage, and the PP was crushing it, but Gaudreau was getting less chances than he was before. To me, he is looking better now than he was at the start of the season, and he is getting rewarded for it. However, that may actually not be the case and his underlying metrics in his last 10 games might be poor.
There is a lot to figure out. For me, the Tkachuk contract is the most pressing to figure out. You have to either deal with it this season and trade him, or you have to really be sure that not only can you work out an extension with him, but that he will fit on the team moving forward. Ditto for Gaudreau - you need to get the sense of what he is thinking in terms of an extension, and get rid of him if it isn't working out. I think he will be an easier re-sign than Tkachuk though, and probably at less risk since it will probably be a lower dollar value (but of course I could be wrong).
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