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Originally Posted by Huntingwhale
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I actually don't think Russia was ever going to invade or annex territory in eastern Ukraine. I believe their game plan in the Donbass and Lugansk areas is different than than it was in Crimea. Crimea was part of Russia proper until 1954 when the Soviet Union transferred it from Russia to Ukraine. I don't agree with their occupation and annexation, but the optics of it are different as there are still people alive today that remember it being part of Russia. And while Russia was obviously the central power and senior partner in the Soviet Union, there is the notion that the Soviet Union was a corrupt federation that didn't have the right to transfer territory.
I think their game plan in Eastern Ukraine isn't to annex it. They know that if the more heavily Russian populated areas are removed from Ukraine, then Ukraine will turn to the West and never look back. The only thing that stops that from happening is the strong Russian influence in the eastern portion of the country and how it affects the balance of power in Kyiv. They want to force those areas to gain autonomy within Ukraine so that they can open their borders with Russia and allow more Russians to move in. They want to use that area to increase the Russian demographic and therefore increase Russian power in the Ukrainian government to prevent them from moving further West.
Like I said before, Russia plays the long game. This whole show bought enough time for pro-Russian factions to fortify while Ukraine backed down. It's actually a really smart tactic by Russia even though I disagree with the morality.