Quote:
Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper
I don’t disagree that stars often win or lose you games. But the average first line star forward in this league cannot do it themselves every night. They need help and that’s why deep teams generally have the most success, because they slot well.
I mean, the average star first liner for any given franchise will score in what, roughly 40ish games in a full 82 game season? Now, other teams are obviously better off then others, the top elite superstars probably produce in 60ish games give or take, 50ishgames for your high end first liners, 30ish games for the bad teams, but in general, 40ish games is probably the average.
So if the average first liner is only scoring in roughly half the games they play and get shut out in the rest, then production has to come from elsewhere right? So that’s when your depth becomes a factor in the form of your team’s second line, bottom 6, defensemen and etc. So, ultimately, they still play a huge part in determining wins and losses. I mean, if you’re not getting help elsewhere, then you become like the Oilers who generally cannot win a game unless their generational talents produce points.
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Could check production based on top six ice time vs wins.
Do a proper Bayesian analysis to get probability of top six production turning into wins.
Could do same with bottom six.
Always thought though that d-men production could skewer that.