Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Well, the other thing is there's been hardly any US college top 10 picks (maybe 1 a year over the last 20 years) and only a small amount got picked by Canadian teams. Trouba by the Jets (and while he signed, he wanted out quick) and Komisarek by the Habs way back in 2001. Every other guy picked went to a pretty decent destination - Keller - AZ, JVR - Philly, Erik Johnson - St. Louis, Skille Chicago, Wilson and Suter - Nashville, Whitney Pittsburgh.
Jack Johnson got picked by Carolina but got traded to LA before he played. And interestingly enough, Ryan McDonagh was a Habs pick but got traded before he played a game (maybe a Fox situation?)
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I just don't see there being any increased risk. It is one thing to forego a contract for a year in an effort to maximise value by becoming a UFA. But it seems unrealistic to imagine that a player would sacrifice three years for this. Say the Flames draft Johnson in 2021, and then offer him a contract in 2022. By foregoing this in order to play out his RFA status, he would set his own career earnings back: instead of becoming a RFA at 22, he would wait until 25; instead of hitting UFA at 25 he would wait until 27. That is potentially millions of dollars lost in career earnings.