Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
You could also get Pavel Brendl, Chad Kilger, or Michael Dal Colle.
It's just about what reasonable expectations are. With a 4OA you have roughly a:
~30% chance of a great player like Backstrom/Kariya/Marner
~30% chance of a very good player like Ricci, Ladd, or Weiss
~20% chance of a disappointing but still useful player like Bennett, Pouliot, or Zherdev
~20% chance of a total bust like Brendl or Bonsignore
Every subsequent pick those odds get a bit worse.
Yes, you could also get Jagr at 5 or Forsberg at 6 or Scheifele at 7 or Bergeron at 45 or Point at 79 or Zetterberg at 210. That doesn't make it a reasonable thing to expect.
At 4 you could also get Luongo, Pietrangelo, or Seth Jones. Or Griffin Reinhart. Or most likely someone in the middle like Klesla, Larsson, Bryan Allen, or Pitkanen.
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Yes obviously there is no guarantee, not even with a first.
But with the 4th pick, you are expected to pick a very good NHLer if you know what you are doing. In every draft year there are more than 4!good players. That said nobody is perfect and #### happened