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Originally Posted by Fuzz
My guess is based on research as well.
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Then I don't understand why you think Tesla's FSD is doomed. It has the best chance of any system out there.
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I don't think yuor research gives you the right to say I don't know what I'm talking about just because I've come to different conclusions.
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Fair enough. But can't understand why you are concluding the legacy OEMs will beat Tesla when there is nothing pointing in this direction. The opposite is happening Tesla is expanding their lead.
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Batteries are obviously the biggest issue, but I suspect most manufacturers will be looking at contracting that out, like they do for many auto parts.
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Meaning legacy OEMs will be left to fight for battery supply not using the best tech. Tesla's hyper vertical integration especially in batteries is a huge advantage.
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And yes, Tesla is of course a major EV manufacturer and I suspect they'll be in amongst that group of leaders, but will fall behind them on sales numbers. I don't think they will still be #1.
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Possible. But given Tesla's build out speed (dirt to production in one year) OEMs are going to have to pull a miracle out of their asses.
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And if you want to go by what auto makers say they've done vs achieved..well Tesla is full of those examples as well.
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Tesla delivered the Y ahead of schedule same with the 3. FSD is way behind. Giga Shanghai way ahead of schedule. More broadly Starlink is ahead, SpaceX a mixed bag but what they're doing was thought to be 100% impossible.
Most of Tesla's problems are battery supply they can't make enough of them. Which is why I don't understand why you think the legacy OEMs are going to beat Tesla in volume. Since you've done your research you know the expected terawatt production of Tesla going forward no one else has shown they can come even close.