Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I think it is important to note that it is difficult to compare eras in part because of how different the Draft is today than it was in the 1970s and '80s. Back then the Flames were able to exploit the vacuum of insight in the American collegiate system and European leagues, and were able to select Nieuwendyk in the second round and Loob in the ninth(!) as a result. I think the Draft is simultaneously not as difficult and more difficult today because there are no longer these sorts of gaps in the collective knowledge of the NHL. Wildcards continue to persist because these are human beings who are prone to all sorts of unpredictable factors that will help or hinder their development. But I think by and large there are fewer surprises at the draft because of how much more data everyone is accessing. Sure, the Flames could get lucky and turn a #17 pick into a top-line centre one day, but that is not likely. The only sure way to get this player is to have a top-two or top-three pick in hand, and to have it at the right time.
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Yet we continue to see guys fall way down and become stars.
We see guys taken 1st overall that never figure it out.
Everyone has more data, yes, but no one knows the variables.
Its all to do with projecting 18 yo kids into the future.
Not just skill development but their maturity, mental capabilities and desire. Some are satisfied getting that eye popping first cheque and never really strive for more. Other guys, money is just not a factor on their own desires.
Just such an incomplete science.