Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
So what is your prediction exactly?
this year?
10 years?
lets hear it...easy to say this won't happen and that won't happen. If I told you 70k a year ago you would have given me the same financial lecture. Seven years is pretty hard to call...100k this year though seems like a slam dunk.
Do you even own crypto? You tell me not to get emotional but have posted six times on this page.
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As a professional money manager, I don't make predictions. I know it is a waste of time. Worse in fact - it is actually detrimental.
As an exercise to demonstrate, let's look at gold - it is currently $1720. What will it be in 10 years? NO ONE HAS ANY IDEA. But we do know that it generally acts as an inflation hedge, and if I estimate future inflation at 2.5% and use that, I come up with $2,200. Is that a reasonable estimate? Who knows? But at least it is based on a reasonable assumption. That is how we plan out investments for the future: we don't know - we
can't know - so we make reasonable assumptions, and diversify. In the aggregate, this usually works out fairly well overall.
No one knows what the next 10 years will bring. Hell, no one knows what
tomorrow will bring.
And all current information is priced in. In 10 years, Bitcoin could be obsolete and worthless, or it could be a mainstream store of wealth. Or anything in between. But it is impossible to tell.
Anyone that thinks they know is simply fooling themselves. And that, in and of itself, is fine - knock yourself out. But selling the idea to others is where I take issue with it.
As a money manager, I don't like seeing people try to tell others that this or that investment is going to be some rocket ship. Hell, it's ridiculous even to predict something as simple as saying the market will correct in a month. Maybe it will, but even if it turns out that way, it was bad advice, because the people making the recommendation were talking out of their asses.
It is an old cliche, but it is absolutely true: greed and fear make rational investing virtually impossible. The moment emotions are involved, rational thought gets trumped - it is the kiss of death. I have watched countless people let greed and/or fear dictate their actions, and it almost never goes well. I try to share that knowledge with others, but it is human nature to have to learn the hard way.
Anyway, I have made my arguments, and tried to bring a little rationality to the conversation. I hope some of the people reading the thread think about things logically, and don't just buy into the hype.
Oh, and yes, I own some - it is currently a momentum play. I am attending the party, but staying very close to the door.