[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Mull

While I hope you are right, I do not agree Trump has no (or little) path to win the general election.

He received more votes than any other candidate in history, not named Joe Biden.

I firmly believe Biden received so many votes not because of the love for him, but as a hate vote for Trump - not exactly an original opinion.

The problem for us who fear Trump wining again is... yes people will remember the Trump presidency in 2024, but voting on hate fades as time goes on, the base will not be as mobilized as people loose their passion. They may not support trump, but if they don't come out to vote, its pretty terrible (and some studies show the American election isn't about swing votes but actually about getting your base to come out in vote in high numbers)

However, the right will form their own protest vote against the Biden government based on talking points over the next 4 years. This tells me that Trump has a clear path to get the more votes in 2024 than 2020, while Biden has a high likelihood to get less than 2020. Enough to cover the margin? Who knows.

This all gets balanced by Biden's incumbent advantage which is huge (along with any over simplification of my past points), so Trump isn't a slam dunk win, but I strongly disagree he has no or even little path to victory in the general.

That said, I am extremely interested in the 2024 republican primaries- if gloves come off, it will be a so much fun to watch. Will candidates attack Trump for the riots? Grab some popcorn .

I doubt Trump could get more votes - those were historic totals - but neither will Biden or his successor. Without the extreme political conditions of a failed pandemic response and Trump’s chaotic record voting likely returns to more typical levels. It will still be highly partisan though and Trump would have an advantage there IMO.