[I-Hate-Hulse]

Well that was quick - the CSC went from the $70B mentioned above to $77B (with a $82B max (i.e. probably) scenario in the PBO's latest report. Looks like a whole host of options were considered, including a mix of Type 26 / 31 as a cost savings means.

NSFW!

This was an interesting read (link), and I'm still working my way though this but this factoid sticks out and drives me nuts:

The United Kingdom’s Royal Navy awarded a contract of ₤3.7 billion to BAE Systems for the manufacture of the first three Type 26 ships in 2017. The ₤3.7 billion contract would suggest a cost of ₤18.5 billion or $31.3 billion CAD for a fleet of 15 ships.27 This is lower than DND’s estimated project cost of $56-60 billion.

This comparison assumes a linear relationship between the number of ships and the cost. It is likely that BAE Systems’ shipyard in Glasgow, Scotland are more experienced than Irving Shipbuilding in Canada, allowing for greater efficiency and productivity, even for the first three ships.

and

The Congressional Budget Office has projected a cost of approximately $12billion real 2020 US dollars,28 or approximately $16 billion CAD (using the average 2019-20 USDCAD exchange rate) for a production run of 10 hulls of the Constellation-class frigate. Assuming a linear relationship between ship quantity and cost, this suggests a procurement cost of 15 vessels for approximately $24 billion real 2020 CAD. This estimate is significantly lower than this report’s estimate of $71 billion CAD for 15 vessels.

I hate to say this but this has all the makings of a cancellation. I can't imagine the people making a hash of one program could make *two* programs running any better. Also Type 31's don't seem to have more than a couple dozen VLS and a deck gun.

I wish the PBO had the guts to call out Government Procurement and flat out say "Buy ships as a fixed-price add on order to the US or UK". Forget about building them here in Canada. No changes to "Canadianize" them permitted.

Maclean's ram this sentiment home with this crazy calculation as to how much better off we'd be if we did this:

“But what about the jobs?!” I can hear the lobbyists cry. Yes, let’s talk about the jobs. According to the government of Canada’s own figures, only 11,100 people are employed in Canada’s shipbuilding industry (we have more massage therapists). If we were to add on those indirectly employed, that number creeps up to 15,200. Now, let’s pretend the Canadian frigate contract is the only shipbuilding job out there, and buying from France would mean every one of those 15,200 people would be out of work. If we were to give each of them $1 million in compensation, Canada would still save over $50 billion (in addition to getting the ships faster).

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/its-...nada-warships/