Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
If those assumptions about conservative voters were accurate, Bill Smith would be the mayor right now.
Last time, there was one of the highest turnouts for a municipal election with an incumbent mayor and a well-funded challenger, and Nenshi still won re-election with a majority of votes.
|
Incumbency is a huge advantage. Godnyk is well known for those paying attention but Farkas would have a lead in name recognition.
So Nenshi/Smith you have name recognition and incumbency in his favour. In Godnyk/Farkas Farkas has name recognition and there is no incumbency advantage.
I’m concerned that Farkas starts at about 40% support and doesn’t need much more to win