Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaErtz
Anyone who thinks that Gondek can beat Farkas head-to-head doesn't have a good understanding of municipal affairs or the electorate in Calgary. The only way Bronconnier and Nenshi won originally were due to the conservative vote being split. Bronconnier won with 28.3% of the vote in 2001 and Nenshi with 39.6% in 2010. Neither would have won had there not been two other high profile conservative candidates splitting the right wing vote.
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I understand your argument with having two conservative candidates made the split work in these two's favour, but is there anything to note with the percentage increase from 2001 to 2010? Nenshi got more votes than Bronco did, and he's a muslim at that in a city that has a negative stereotype (underserving or not) of being very white-washed and conservative. With this now being another 10 years until a new mayor, is it possible the electorate may be more progressive with their votes?
I know the UCP got back in a couple years ago, and NDP was more of a protest vote, but the UCP brand is hurting at the moment based on polls. So people's mood in the city may not be so keen on candidates that come off conservatives right now as they may at other times.