Quote:
Originally Posted by united
Interesting situation with the challenge dilemma with about 1:30 remaining. Reminds me of the fourth down bots any NFL fans will be familiar with.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Flames' win probability one second before Nylander's tying goal was 94%.
Taking that into account, and the expected value of winning the challenge (Regulation win, TML still tie 6v5 then OT/SO win, TML still tie 6v5 then OT/SO loss) versus losing the challenge (TML PP goal in regulation, OT/SO loss, OT/SO win) I get a break-even challenge success of about 36%.
If the Flames thought there was a better than 36% chance of winning the challenge it would have been worthwhile. Tough call with nobody on Earth, including officials, knowing what constitutes goaltender interference.
Lots of assumptions in there but ballpark as a starting point.
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I would have made the call to do it just to support the boys and fire them up.
This is where Ward fails most, IMO. He does not understand how to motivate and support this team with moves and adjustments when needed.